Republican congressional leaders say their tax overhaul would raise wages, accelerate economic growth and give middle-class families a badly needed tax cut.
They are having a hard time convincing Americans of those claims.
Many polls have shown that the tax bill is highly unpopular with voters, and growing more so. And a new survey shows that a large majority expects to see no personal benefit from the legislation.
According to the survey of 5,100 adults, conducted this week for The New York Times by the online polling firm SurveyMonkey, only a third of Americans think their taxes will go down in 2018 if the bill passes next week as widely expected.
That is at odds not only with the Republican talking points but also with the assessment of most economists who have studied the bill. The Tax Policy Center, a research group, recently found that under the Senate version of the plan, roughly three-quarters of American households would pay less in taxes next year. Last-minute changes made by a House-Senate conference committee could lead to a tax cut for even more Americans.
The confusion probably stems in part from the complexity of the bill, which would increase the size of some tax breaks while reducing or eliminating others. And it could also reflect the unpopularity of President Trump.
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Cindy Kelly, an art director for a television station in Orlando, Fla., is the kind of person who might ordinarily support the tax bill. A political moderate, she said she was optimistic that a corporate tax cut could lead companies to create jobs and increase wages. And as a middle-class resident of a low-tax state, she would most likely come out ahead.
But Ms. Kelly, 54, said she doubted that the bill would cut taxes for her or other middle-class Americans. She said her skepticism stemmed from one factor: Mr. Trump.
"I just can't be too happy about it over all," Ms. Kelly said. "I have such a strong distrust of the president."
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