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oh needle I love you marry me
— Atrios (@Atrios) Dec. 13, 2017
An object of both obsession and derision during the 2016 presidential election, The New York Times's election tracking needle returned to the national spotlight during Tuesday's Alabama Senate race, accurately predicting a victory for the Democratic candidate, Doug Jones, over his Republican rival, Roy S. Moore.
Nate Cohn, a domestic correspondent who covers elections, polling and demographics for The Upshot, tweeted about the race.
The needle thinks its Doug Jones' night. pic.twitter.com/dEBxYriHVm
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) Dec. 13, 2017
There can be no doubt: Dougie Jones is Mr. Jackpots. pic.twitter.com/jEUO1Z8FaW
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) Dec. 13, 2017
Our live results election page, featuring the needle, received more than 13 million page views, making it among our most-read pieces published this year. The needle inspired a #NYTNeedle hashtag and several memes.
Me 10 minutes ago: What's this NYT needle I've hard so much about
Me now pic.twitter.com/7ieB5w0Cto
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) Dec. 13, 2017
John Muyskens, a graphics editor at The Washington Post, worked with Arthur Shlain from the Noun Project to turn it into a mesmerizing GIF.
— John Muyskens (@JohnMuyskens) Dec. 12, 2017
Quartz anthropomorphized it and allowed it to write a column about its comeback.
The Times's election needle predicts the outcome of an election based on incoming results, prior election results and demographic data.
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The needle debuted in the 2016 presidential primaries and reappeared during this year's Georgia and Virginia elections, where it also helped call the results accurately. Our graphics department and the Upshot desk partnered to develop the tool as a cutting-edge means of "visualizing uncertainty," said Jeremy Bowers, our senior editor for news applications.
Graphic displays like the needle, he added, are meant to give a more visceral understanding of the real-world error that has to be factored into making electoral predictions.
"I think about it the same way as I think about forecasting the weather," Jeremy said. To predict a storm, he explained, meteorologists take available data and run simulations; as more data comes in, the forecast becomes more precise.
About 7:30 p.m. on the presidential election night in 2016, the needle put Hillary Clinton's chances of winning at about 80 percent, a prediction that went unrealized. Afterward, the needle received sharp criticism.
Even so, said Amanda Cox, our Upshot editor, today's needle is not substantively different in form or function from the 2016 one. "There are ongoing efforts to make the model as precise as possible, but essentially it's the same needle," Amanda said. "It's all just about using what we know, and that hasn't changed."
This past Tuesday night, about a dozen staff members worked to keep the needle running. Some fed it the voting results from each of Alabama's 67 counties, transmitted to our newsroom by Associated Press stringers. All of this data was updated every five seconds, Jeremy said.
Others Times employees who worked on the needle Tuesday night sat guard over their screens to be sure the live results displayed correctly.
As the needle fluctuated, one reader feared the anticipation would kill him.
On my tombstone please write:
"He's here because of the New York Times election needle."
— Clint Smith (@ClintSmithIII) Dec. 13, 2017
The needle gradually began moving in Mr. Jones's favor a little before 9:15 p.m., and at about 10:30 p.m., The A.P. called the race for him.
Amanda said she was pleased with the performance of the needle and our live updates.
"We continue to think it's the best way to watch election returns," she told us. "If you're going to watch the vote come in, you should do it smartly. We were thrilled to see it across the internet last night."
A lot of Times readers agree.
All hail the Needle.
For the greater good!
(The greater good!) pic.twitter.com/FIqS3mjGNh
— Imani Gandy Canes (@AngryBlackLady) Dec. 13, 2017
So I think we can all agree that the @UpshotNYT needle is the biggest winner tonight.
— Miles Johnstone (@johnstoneing) Dec. 13, 2017
The New York Times election needle should win Time's Person of the Year in 2018.
— Just Me. (@KnifeOfDamocles) Dec. 13, 2017
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